By Ersin Oezsahin
The literature at the motives of democratization usually claims that integration into foreign markets is helping to construct democracy. unlike that the empirical checklist indicates that even though the level of foreign alternate elevated swiftly among 1950 and 2000, nearly all of the saw regime transitions didn't determine democratic rule yet a number of kinds of authoritarianism. This examine makes a speciality of this puzzle and employs a online game theoretic version that explicitly bills for democratization and advancements in the direction of authoritarianism. counting on an unconventional degree of regime swap that considers any quantity of institutional adjustments, it may be proven that strongly built-in authoritarian regimes are much less prone to enhance in the direction of democracy. whereas much less built-in regimes particularly democratize, expanding degrees of integration into international markets are inclined to stabilize authoritarianism. in addition, if built-in regimes modify, they're likely to shift in the direction of stricter authoritarianism.
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Additional info for The International Constraints on Regime Changes: How Globalization Hinders the Prospects for Democratization
Example text
This model and its basic predictions may also provide a microtheoretic foundation for Przeworski’s et al. (2000) result that highly developed authoritarian regimes are less likely to break down. Following the notion that integration into world markets yields positive economic effects (Sachs & Warner 1995; Frankel & Romer 1999), highly integrated authoritarian regimes are expected to have prosperous economies. If this holds, one should expect the consequence of regime changes to be severe, such that the key actors in the transition game abstain from endangering their realization of income by altering institutions – a prediction which strongly challenges the modernization-related perspective that globalization helps to build democracies.
With regard to this assumption about the nature of transitional dynamics one should observe transitions only if the disenfranchised citizens of a regime are both dissatisfied with the performance of the existing institutional setting and if they expect higher individual benefits from other institutional arrangements. The second condition of this hypothesis denotes the key to understanding the puzzling observation concerning the directions of transitions. Regarding the individuals’ expectation of the performance of alternative institutions allows for an analysis of regime alterations beyond the focus on democratization.
The distributional conflict may also result in political instability. Within the transition game instability arises whenever the citizens challenge the ruling elite and instability may become an actual state of the regime if the elite decides to repress the citizens’ demands. This suppression outcome also reflects a kind of negative redistribution since the costs of repressive measures have to be financed in the same way as redistributive measures: by taxation. 1 The structure of the argument 45 institutional settings (for a similar use of taxation policies see Alesina & Rodrik 1994).
