By Owen F. Humpage
In December 2012, as a kickoff to the Federal Reserve System's centennial, the Federal Reserve financial institution of Cleveland requested major financial historians and macroeconomic economists to deal with present and routine financial issues that confront significant banks from a ancient point of view. The ensuing papers, released during this quantity, hide quite a lot of matters, together with the which means of central-bank independence, the function of communications and principles in fostering credibility, the evolution of the lender-of-last-resort functionality, the mechanism during which banks transmit monetary shocks, and customers for a eu financial union. A retrospective at the Federal Reserve, this ebook includes essays by means of a few of the world's so much in demand monetary historians and offers a radical evaluate of the evolution of the financial ordinary during the last centuries. providing old context as a supplement to financial idea and empiricism, those papers examine how monetary infrastructure shapes monetary results via comparisons of Canada and the USA.
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Extra info for Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History: Essays to Commemorate the Federal Reserve System’s Centennial
We [historians] honor our assignment at contextual reconstruction most often in the breach, perhaps, but our discipline is inherently holistic and better nurtures that On Phillips’ focus on using his machine to inform economic policymaking see Laidler (2000). 16 See Smith and Foley (2005). ” 17 As emphasized by MacMillan (2009). ”18 Finally, historical analogy may be especially valuable when time deformation is important: when the evolution of important economic variables seems to speed up, when some variables evolve more rapidly than others, and when variables that normally evolve continuously display discontinuous changes – as a result of which conventional modes of empirical analysis break down.
Similarly, it is probably not a coincidence that the dominant analogy to the 2008–2009 financial crisis was Larry Summers, who was there, subsequently remarked that he found historical analysis the most useful form of analysis when seeking to cope with the crisis in real time; the preceding observations are one way of understanding this. 21 Cited in Rapport (2012). The context for the remark was an analogy between Germany’s decision in 1914 to press its momentary advantage over Russia and France, with disastrous geopolitical consequences, and the possibility that Israel might press its momentary military advantage to launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear program.
Rapport, Aaron. (2012). “Making the Case for History: Using Historical Analogies in Policy Analysis,” Miller Center Blog, University of Virginia (February 22). org/blog/making-the-case. Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff. (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Rostow, Walt Whitman. (1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: A Noncommunist Manifesto. New York: Cambridge University Press. Smith, Eric, and Duncan Foley. (2005). ” Unpublished manuscript, Santa Fe Institute.