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1978) should be noted in this context. Garrick et al. propose an efficiency criterion that relates the model error variance to the variance of the seasonal prediction based only on date. They demonstrate that for the Sanaga River catchment, which experiences highly seasonal stage variations, the SSARR simulation model is less efficient than the simple seasonal prediction. The successive in-time values of river flow are usually highly correlated. Keeping this in mind another forecast model may be applied.
Therefore, estimate E was examined in relation to inertial forecasts after comparison of the empirical probability distributions of the errors. 8. In the few months when the QPF showed higher errors, the value of E approached 1. Therefore, in general, forecast efficiency was fair enough. However, since no major flood occurred in the 1975-1977 period on the Soia and the Dunajec Rivers, the problem will have to be examined again under flood conditions. The Lower Vistula River System Two examples of the system's performance in 1976 are shown in Figures 4 and 5.
The observers at the reporting posts are locally hired part-time workers. The staff at the collecting stations is highly qualified and full-time. The telecommunication facilities and the computer center serving the systems transmit and process the observational data. These facilities are used for developing and operating the hydrological forecasting systems. Since the hardware capacity of the center is adequate for real-time handling of meteorological information according to World Weather Watch (WWW) standards, it is also adequate for the real-time operation of the hydrological forecasting systems in Poland.
