By David Held
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Additional resources for Prospects for Democracy: North, South, East, West
Sample text
2 Research design I think that statistical methods provide the best strategy to test the evolutionary theory of democratization outlined above. We can derive testable hypotheses from the theory and test them by empirical evidence. For this purpose, we have to define empirical variables to measure hypothetical concepts, to formulate research hypotheses on the relationships between variables, to collect empirical evidence on variables, and then to test hypotheses by statistical methods. This kind of comparative method in which the same variables are used for all countries makes the results comparable from one country to another and allows us to test hypotheses by statistical analysis techniques, although it leaves out a part of variation that is due to other factors.
1992) attempted to apply the concepts of a Marxist class theory of state to transitions from dictatorship to democracy in 14 Tatu Vanhanen Spain, Portugal and Greece, but their country analyses did not produce any clearly defined and testable theory or hypothesis on the transition to representative democracy. In fact, they were more concerned with the problem of why transitions to socialism did not take place in those countries. As Chilcote (1992:201) says, their objective was ‘to analyze why Socialists in those countries favor political accommodation and therefore have reached an impasse in the long-range process of a transition to socialism’.
They define democracy to denote a system of government: that meets three essential conditions: meaningful and extensive competition among individuals and organized groups (especially political parties) for all effective positions of government power, at regular intervals and excluding the use of force; a ‘highly inclusive’ level of political participation in the selection of leaders and policies, at least through regular and fair elections, such that no major (adult) social group is excluded; and a level of civil and political liberties—freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom to form and join organizations—sufficient to ensure the integrity of political competition and participation.
