By Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin
This quantity deals a couple of forensic symptoms of election fraud utilized to professional election returns, and checks and illustrates their program in Russia and Ukraine. integrated are the methodology's econometric info and theoretical assumptions. The purposes to Russia contain the research of all federal elections among 1996 and 2007 and, for Ukraine, among 2004 and 2007. typically, we discover that fraud has metastasized in the Russian polity in the course of Putin's management with upwards of 10 million or extra suspect votes in either the 2004 and 2007 vote casting, while in Ukraine, fraud has lowered significantly because the moment around of its 2004 presidential election the place among 1.5 to three million votes have been falsified. the quantity concludes with a attention of knowledge from the us to demonstrate the hazards of the appliance of our tools with no due attention of an election's noticeable context and the features of the knowledge handy.
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Additional info for The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine
Sample text
Such matching is a far more tractable enterprise at either the rayon or election district level (as is classifying observations as coming from urban versus village or rural areas or percentage Russian versus Ukrainian speaking). Whenever possible, of course, we use the lowest Outline 29 level of aggregation possible, except in those instances where we illustrate the pitfalls of drawing inferences from data that are too highly aggregated. 3 outline This volume is organized as follows: Our next chapter details three forensic tools for assessing the legitimacy of an election that take as input official election returns as they might be supplied by a central election commission.
Owing in part to the unsophisticated nature of the fraud that led to his “victory” (and to some arm twisting no doubt on the part of Western governments), Yanukovich was essentially left twisting in the wind between these rounds by Ukraine’s incumbent administration The Special Relevance of Russia and Ukraine 27 and a greatly embarrassed Putin (who months earlier had arrogantly introduced Yanukovich to the American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as “the next president of Ukraine” as if to establish his de facto control of the country).
Were voters turned away at the polls because poor planning and logistics dictated the printing or distribution of too few ballots? Did the numbers not add up because of clerical errors and out-of-date registration lists? Answers to such questions may be straightforward for those with political agendas, but they rarely are for the objective analyst. Confounding matters further is the fact that even if there is no immediate evidence of a crime, further investigation might prove otherwise. In the case of the ostensible murder victim, we might not terminate our investigation even in the absence of evidence that the deceased died of anything other than natural causes, especially if there are ancillary reasons for hypothesizing foul play (for example, a recently purchased life insurance policy covering the deceased and naming a spouse with major gambling debts as beneficiary).
