By Manuel Gottlieb
Publication through Gottlieb, Manuel
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Extra resources for Long Swings in Urban Development
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TABLE 1-2 . 1 C,, 28 introduction and Summary of Findings activity itself. The mean specific amplitude for the price of subdivided vacant lots in Paris was 132 cycle relatives, while Chicago's record of improved urban site values over a comparable stretch of years was 193. In both cases, amplitudes receded as urban growth rates slowed down. Some follow-through for urban site values is found in virtually all segments of the real estate market. Newly constructed properties will include, of course, an allowance for the cost of land on which the building is erected.
The sluggish of labor costs probably accounts for the ten dency of building costs to lag one or two years behind building turning points. Long waves of building met a supply resistance w hich evoked a partial response in the cost of building. The latter fluctuates with an amplitude one-sixth that of building activity its elf. It thus appears that building labor and materials are drawn from the economy and released in long swings with relative ease. Mortgage interest rates share a common long-term m ovement with investment yields on high-grade securities of long maturities.
One indication relates to farm mortgage credit recordings, which show clear-cut reference-cycle fluctuations in value (Chapter 4, pp. ). A second indication is the clear-cut long reference-cycle behavior of barn and stable building shown in Chart 1-2. Perhaps extension of farm settlement in America and in other agricultural countries proceeded in contracyclical rhythms, and intensive building within settled farm communities developed in cyclical rhythms. In the aggregate of nonresidential building, the tendencies of public building to lag behind turns in residential building is in part offset by a tendency of industrial building to lead.
